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Monday, May 18, 2009

Warming up of Sino-US worldwide economic argument

By Zou himfr

Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's website published the article "on the change in macro-and micro-to further explore the pro-cyclical", the article said, "to discuss some of the financial system and pro-cyclical factors, possible remedies measures as well as monetary and fiscal authorities in the serious market crisis of how to play a professional role. " Zhou Xiaochuan, said the author, China's macro-control policies are beginning to bear fruit, there are some leading indicators of warmer signs of rapid decline in economic growth has been checked the basic situation. Zhou Xiaochuan made the establishment of capital constrained reverse cycle mechanism and actively implement the "New Basel Capital Accord."

This is Zhou Xiaochuan, following the March 23, the 24th following sites in the midpoint bank has issued a noted portion of the third. Zhou Xiaochuan made before the global monetary procedure and on the query of the fundamental thought of savings, it is proposed to bring ahead super-sovereign retain currency throughout the world attention. Obama President of the United States straight away articulated that "the prevailing tough dollar." Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in addition refused the U.S. request to give up.

However, Zhou Xiaochuan, the proposal has been a lot of developing countries and some international organizations. March 24, the International Monetary Fund responded positively to the recommendations of Zhou Xiaochuan, president of the institution Kahn said in Paris on the 25th, the Chinese super-sovereign international reserve currency of the proposal is reasonable. Zhou Xiaochuan, the proposal also supported by the Russian and other "BRIC countries" to support, at the same time, the European Union to pressure the United States put forward to break the old system of international finance.

On the eve of the G20 summit to China and the United States acing for both boundaries for an global fiscal discussion, is way of heating up.

Binding means for the establishment of turn around cycle capital

Zhou Xiaochuan, said the writer, the total, China's macro-control guidelines are commencing to withstand yield, there are some primary pointers of warmer signals of quick descent in monetary expansion has been checked the minimal situation. These achievements in China's government countered swiftly and resolutely to realize a proactive fiscal guideline and loose monetary guideline appropriately supported on the progress.

Zhou Xiaochuan believes that the current Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the West special mandate to stabilize the market, often through a long political process, which is often the best course of action to miss the opportunity. Economists usually focus on the macro level, the pro-cyclical, however, at the micro level, the current market structure contains a number of noteworthy features of the pro-cyclical, in response to the current crisis, reform the financial system should be addressed. In the existing market structure, it is necessary to arrange more in the micro-level mechanism of the reverse cycle (that is, a negative feedback loop), in order to ensure a more stable financial system.

In response to these shortcomings, Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out the existing capital adequacy ratio to overcome the vulnerability of the capital in particular, the cyclical nature of the buffer, the departments responsible for financial stability could play a professional role; and in fiscal policy, the development of the use of reverse-cycle multiplier, Shun-cycle inhibitory factor is the new way.

Standard Chartered Bank chief economist and head of global research that LEE Lai Si, macroeconomic imbalances and financial system within the combined effect of systemic failure led to the occurrence of this crisis, since the cycle of policy and risk management, especially under conditions of tight credit The lack of liquidity management is the main reason. To be out of crisis and need to establish a more balanced world economy, that is, the Western economies shift from high consumption to increase savings, Asia and the Middle East economies, high savings, reducing the savings to increase spending is also indispensable.

G20 summit frequency of the centered bank will shortly be handed out

Focused its alertness on the world will convene in early April of the G20 summit in London, promising to find advances the world economic procedure, "Moses out of Egypt." Lai Sze Lee try to diagram out, "Despite the prevailing purpose of alertness throughout the world is how to resolve the G20 monetary and fiscal critical purpose, but in certainty, more nations will like more long-term."

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics, deputy controller of the worldwide economic study, said Zhang Ming, Zhou Xiaochuan made a couple of days before to restructure the worldwide monetary scheme for the intermediate and long-term dream, short period more tough to achieve. Once these concepts into truth, in the long run is compelled to dwindle the dollar's rank, it is not astonishing that Obama opposed.

But Zhang Ming trusts that the summit becomes noticeable to have been included in too more high prospects of the parties that this be realised at one time utilitarian mentality, and eventually may become "non-weight bearing", to duplicate the faults G20 summit in Washington, it is arduous to to arrive at any of the critical purpose in the liberate or reconstruction of the global monetary procedure of the substantive program.

Not long before at a press seminar on the concluding designated day, the centered bank website at 20:35 on the 26th one time afresh marked by the centered bank handed out the Institute of Finance "of the restructure of the worldwide economic supervision scheme, couple of understand." In this paper, that the parties to the restructure regardless of the present economic scheme made many of proposals and pattern some agreement, but there is still "a number of matters yet to be completely cognizant of the parties or to come to a consensus", so to recall the parties to pay vigilance to the reality of the following five questions: the first step to advance economic supervision is the supervision of self-criticism; the introduction of macro-management parameters of the cycle, turn around cycle to reinforce mechanisms; regulatory bureaus need to enhance the value, or need of supervision of the market know-how and feeling; to reinforce the use of ranking and ranking bureaus supervision; worried about the topic of business governance. - 21392

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