North American auto industry will change the vibration pattern of the global automotive
5 months ago, when GM Chief Operating Officer (COO) Henderson predicted that the real crisis in the United States automobile market will appear in the first half of 2009. 5 months later, the American automobile market turbulence proved him prophetic, even Henderson himself has been pushed to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) on the seat, ready for GM to avoid the final collapse of one stroke.
March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama rejected the President of the United States GM and Chrysler's restructuring plan, GM also asked the next 60 days, greater efforts must come up with the restructuring plan, or only seek bankruptcy protection. At the same time, the United States, "three" in another Chrysler, and Fiat have also entered into a global alliance framework agreement.
Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto monster to the last line of life and death, possibly in two months subsequent, the American vehicle commerce will have a important change. Since disperse to the international economic gale at the instant, the world chart of engine vehicles has currently started on the loose; With expanding deepness of the urgent position, the North American market alterations subversive clear expanding tendency, which will be the pattern of the international auto commerce and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile commerce which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for data asset development, Xu Changming, controller of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a investigator Zhang Xin.
There is still hope that the United States Automobile
Some commentators accept as factual that the Government of the United States intervention in general so critical, or will absolutely go under GM. In this consider, Zhang Xin believe, if GM bankruptcy, in detail is not easily due to incompetence to extend to function while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, administration, employees between the outcomes of a sequence of games. But mechanically, a premier general-purpose or, in specific in the new power and hydrogen fuel expertise has benefits, the present need to start a new power, electric driven vehicles in transition.
Even though the field of electric vehicles at GM to start earlier, and the formation of a more sophisticated technical system, but because before the economic crisis of the traditional American car sales have been stable, there will be no rush to the promotion of universal electric vehicles. Zhang Xin think should seize this opportunity now.
Development through universal familiarity, Xu Chang-ming in addition trusts that the United States should step up for vitality costs, monetary types of development, the future oil costs will carry on to enhance, the United States "tall wide" dead end mode of development of the models.
The international automobile commerce or change the pattern of
Xu Changming believe, despite of if or not GM will change, the pattern of the international automotive commerce, large alterations will absolutely have to happen. Since any foremost financial urgent position will have important ramifications, and the United States and Japan will chink down on large enterprises.
The North American market has shrunk notably, the largest withstand the brunt of the conflict against the United States are restricted motor vehicle prices. At the matching time, because North America is Japan's most valued objective the globalization market, Japanese motor vehicle costs are in addition hard hit.
Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day on behalf of the Department of models are considered in the economic crisis in a relatively advantageous position, but the present situation, because the total North American market drop too much, resulting in the overall impact can not own a business . Statistics show that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 fell to 17 million of the 13 million last year, probably only this year reached 9,000,000.
In show up, Xu Changming consider motor vehicle financial gatherings in Europe changed by the quite tiny mass of globalization for instance objective markets, mostly in the development of arising markets, arising markets, the slighter the consequence of fiscal crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end brand label in the worldwide quite balanced distribution.
Zhang trusts that the development of the automotive development from the worldwide circumstances, Sino-Japanese monetary critical purpose at the Department of the development capability of motor vehicles are still the strongest. Since, as exemplified by Toyota, Japanese motor vehicle costs in the enterprise point of scenery, organisation, wares particulars on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. economic procedure out of the foundation of this year, it will be probable Japanese motor vehicles are the largest champions, but there is no yield if the last "who in addition can not carry."
Zhang trusts that the monetary critical purpose, only to uphold the survival of the funds. If sales in arising markets but it does not carry good revisits, or no meaning. For case, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese motor vehicle costs in arising markets in addition have very good sales, but its profitability and tough high-end yield, chiefly in the North American market. When the 31 out of 100 descent in the U.S. market, Toyota on the forfeit of that in arising markets only, "go traffic" and not effectual, the matching will not work.
Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market anxious
Same even though the fiscal critical purpose changed the Chinese automobile market, but because of guideline modifications corrected to have a many possibility for the in the household market. Maintenance payment abolition of plunging oil costs, motor vehicle pay for duty by half, "car to the surrounding territories policies" have augmented highly to the tiny displacement and low-cost type development.
According to Xu Changming examination, 80 out of 100 owned by to their own brand label of such types, it modifications from a guideline consideration, the own brand label is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming adjudicator, the next two years are the development of own brand labels the historic possibility of the second period. The first possibility in past files are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an midpoint annual rate of more than 35% expansion in own brand labels to rousing opportunities; this guideline are the chances at the market as a total the circumstances is not good Next, there is apparently conducive to the development of unconnected brands.
XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, compared the situation look better, because this round of market recovery, do not rely on one well-developed, second-class areas, but mainly by the relatively backward areas are market driven. Start-up of these markets, relatively longer period of time will continue, because these economies less affected and is in a period of rapid growth, this market will in the near future to maintain good level of development.
However, Xu Chang-ming pointed out that the policy also led to opportunities for our country vehicle will reduce the effectiveness of enterprises, small displacement the rapid growth of low-priced models, but the overall downward trend in profits.
Zhang trusts that the prevailing so-called "good", only the "quantity" a manifestation of, but if yield descent, and there is no large allotment of farther significance. Such an result is in all likelihood to source the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a horrid solution.
Zhang said that China's auto market is historic possibility for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will evermore be with the motor vehicle standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China's greatest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive motor vehicle (the goods produced of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not move into the world apex 10 enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are goods produced, have tens of thousands of entities of the gap 10.
Zhang trusts that China's auto market is still in the "Government of the warlords under the security of scrimmage." Only by letting enterprises to optimize the superiority, faults enterprises be abolished fully completed, the Chinese can become a truly tough car. - 21392
March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama rejected the President of the United States GM and Chrysler's restructuring plan, GM also asked the next 60 days, greater efforts must come up with the restructuring plan, or only seek bankruptcy protection. At the same time, the United States, "three" in another Chrysler, and Fiat have also entered into a global alliance framework agreement.
Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto monster to the last line of life and death, possibly in two months subsequent, the American vehicle commerce will have a important change. Since disperse to the international economic gale at the instant, the world chart of engine vehicles has currently started on the loose; With expanding deepness of the urgent position, the North American market alterations subversive clear expanding tendency, which will be the pattern of the international auto commerce and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile commerce which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for data asset development, Xu Changming, controller of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a investigator Zhang Xin.
There is still hope that the United States Automobile
Some commentators accept as factual that the Government of the United States intervention in general so critical, or will absolutely go under GM. In this consider, Zhang Xin believe, if GM bankruptcy, in detail is not easily due to incompetence to extend to function while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, administration, employees between the outcomes of a sequence of games. But mechanically, a premier general-purpose or, in specific in the new power and hydrogen fuel expertise has benefits, the present need to start a new power, electric driven vehicles in transition.
Even though the field of electric vehicles at GM to start earlier, and the formation of a more sophisticated technical system, but because before the economic crisis of the traditional American car sales have been stable, there will be no rush to the promotion of universal electric vehicles. Zhang Xin think should seize this opportunity now.
Development through universal familiarity, Xu Chang-ming in addition trusts that the United States should step up for vitality costs, monetary types of development, the future oil costs will carry on to enhance, the United States "tall wide" dead end mode of development of the models.
The international automobile commerce or change the pattern of
Xu Changming believe, despite of if or not GM will change, the pattern of the international automotive commerce, large alterations will absolutely have to happen. Since any foremost financial urgent position will have important ramifications, and the United States and Japan will chink down on large enterprises.
The North American market has shrunk notably, the largest withstand the brunt of the conflict against the United States are restricted motor vehicle prices. At the matching time, because North America is Japan's most valued objective the globalization market, Japanese motor vehicle costs are in addition hard hit.
Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day on behalf of the Department of models are considered in the economic crisis in a relatively advantageous position, but the present situation, because the total North American market drop too much, resulting in the overall impact can not own a business . Statistics show that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 fell to 17 million of the 13 million last year, probably only this year reached 9,000,000.
In show up, Xu Changming consider motor vehicle financial gatherings in Europe changed by the quite tiny mass of globalization for instance objective markets, mostly in the development of arising markets, arising markets, the slighter the consequence of fiscal crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end brand label in the worldwide quite balanced distribution.
Zhang trusts that the development of the automotive development from the worldwide circumstances, Sino-Japanese monetary critical purpose at the Department of the development capability of motor vehicles are still the strongest. Since, as exemplified by Toyota, Japanese motor vehicle costs in the enterprise point of scenery, organisation, wares particulars on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. economic procedure out of the foundation of this year, it will be probable Japanese motor vehicles are the largest champions, but there is no yield if the last "who in addition can not carry."
Zhang trusts that the monetary critical purpose, only to uphold the survival of the funds. If sales in arising markets but it does not carry good revisits, or no meaning. For case, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese motor vehicle costs in arising markets in addition have very good sales, but its profitability and tough high-end yield, chiefly in the North American market. When the 31 out of 100 descent in the U.S. market, Toyota on the forfeit of that in arising markets only, "go traffic" and not effectual, the matching will not work.
Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market anxious
Same even though the fiscal critical purpose changed the Chinese automobile market, but because of guideline modifications corrected to have a many possibility for the in the household market. Maintenance payment abolition of plunging oil costs, motor vehicle pay for duty by half, "car to the surrounding territories policies" have augmented highly to the tiny displacement and low-cost type development.
According to Xu Changming examination, 80 out of 100 owned by to their own brand label of such types, it modifications from a guideline consideration, the own brand label is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming adjudicator, the next two years are the development of own brand labels the historic possibility of the second period. The first possibility in past files are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an midpoint annual rate of more than 35% expansion in own brand labels to rousing opportunities; this guideline are the chances at the market as a total the circumstances is not good Next, there is apparently conducive to the development of unconnected brands.
XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, compared the situation look better, because this round of market recovery, do not rely on one well-developed, second-class areas, but mainly by the relatively backward areas are market driven. Start-up of these markets, relatively longer period of time will continue, because these economies less affected and is in a period of rapid growth, this market will in the near future to maintain good level of development.
However, Xu Chang-ming pointed out that the policy also led to opportunities for our country vehicle will reduce the effectiveness of enterprises, small displacement the rapid growth of low-priced models, but the overall downward trend in profits.
Zhang trusts that the prevailing so-called "good", only the "quantity" a manifestation of, but if yield descent, and there is no large allotment of farther significance. Such an result is in all likelihood to source the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a horrid solution.
Zhang said that China's auto market is historic possibility for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will evermore be with the motor vehicle standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China's greatest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive motor vehicle (the goods produced of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not move into the world apex 10 enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are goods produced, have tens of thousands of entities of the gap 10.
Zhang trusts that China's auto market is still in the "Government of the warlords under the security of scrimmage." Only by letting enterprises to optimize the superiority, faults enterprises be abolished fully completed, the Chinese can become a truly tough car. - 21392
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